In the “CanadaWorks 2025” study, published in early April, the HRPA and Deloitte read Canada’s economic future. Between bad omens and hoped-for prosperity, the study takes stock of three probable scenarios for the future, the results of decisions being made today.
Despite the crisis, Canada in 2012 continues to display signs of good health. The unemployment rate, around 7.2% last March, is still relatively low. Growth is stable – the GDP rose by half a point in January alone. In addition, the country continues to be extremely attractive to skilled immigrants and has a diverse workforce, able to sustain overall productivity in all sectors of activity.
However, although these indices are reassuring the challenges ahead must not be overlooked. The European debt crisis, emergence of new powers, armed conflicts around the world… Each of these international problems, in a globalized context, are a potential shadow on Canada’s future.
Common concerns, debatable solutions
Aware of these threats, The Human Resources Professionals Associations (HRPA) and the Human Capital Group of Deloitte focused on the challenges and problems that tomorrow will bring. The result is the “CanadaWorks 2025” study, based on combining the analyses of fifty specialists and expert players in the Canadian labour market.
The study’s objective? “The purpose of this exercise was not to identify the future of Canada’s workplace with certainty”, explains William Greenhalgh, CEO of HRPA. “It was rather to recognize that despite our relatively enviable position, it is essential that we find strategies that can stop the very real problems that persist, whether the lack of viability of our businesses, the weak competitiveness of our companies and quality of employment in our country, the lack of openness in our workplaces or our inadequate level of innovation.” These are major concerns for every one of the leaders, board chairmen, politicians or academics and economists that were questioned for the purposes of the study.
“The persons interviewed were generally in agreement on the questions that deserved to be treated as a priority,” adds Jeff Moir, a partner at Deloitte. “However, the means of achieving this led to some major debates.” The debates are sure to fuel the choices that will present themselves to decision makers over the next few years and which will in the meantime contribute to creating the three scenarios imagined for the future by the HRPA and Deloitte.
Scenario 1: “The lost decade”
The most pessimistic possibility is the result of a combination of passivity and default decisions. According to this scenario, by 2025 the lack of effective response to the issues relating to education, immigration and employment, as well as the disrepair of primary industry, and finally the lack of effort applied for necessary renewal of infrastructures and massive adoption of new technologies, will have cost Canada its brand image.
If this idea appears at first glance to be a long way from the Canada of 2012, some data will nonetheless give it credence. In fact, in terms of productivity, for example, negative indices were already evident in 2011.
Another potentially problematic record is adoption of the internet. Ranked by country in 2010 by McAfee, Canada is far behind the United Arab Emirates, France, Mexico, India or even Brazil.
Scenario 2: “Fleeting prosperity”
According to this more positive scenario, by January 1, 2025, Canada will have generally posted good results – the GDP will have grown steadily, driven by the steady rise in oil prices, and highly skilled employees will be sought after by companies, where they benefit from better tools, more modern contracts, and an optimal balance between work and personal life.
This is, however, a portrait that tends to mask profound structural problems. Indeed, although natural resources sustain the country’s economy, other sectors are lagging behind. The same applies to the labour market – workers that have general training have obsolete conditions for practicing them and are struggling to find satisfying career opportunities. In a word – “Canada, in this case, has failed in its objective of diversification and will not be able to set up an education system in phase with the real needs of the labour market”, summarizes Jeff Moir.
Scenario 3: “The northern tiger”
The final alternative is the image of a Canada that by 2025 demonstrates a vigorous, diversified economy. The country will be benefiting from its ability to have built on green, sustainable technologies, ICT or professional services. Immigration has been integrated in an intelligent way on the labour market, through improved recognition of international credentials. The Canadian education system has adapted to the current needs of businesses. Legislation relating to employment will provide for greater flexibility to companies and employees, for more productivity. In short, employment and growth are looking good and the Canadian economy is radiating internationally.
The keys to success
The main condition for the country to mutate into a fighting feline within fifteen years is Change. Indeed, “decisions must be made and they must be made soon”, insists Jeff Moir. ”For sure, turbulence awaits us if we choose the path of least resistance. And, as we strive to demonstrate, a positive outlook is possible for the work world in Canada by 2025”.
On what points do we then prepare for Canada’s future prosperity? In this sense, the study formulates five key levers:
- Modernization of education – improvement of study conditions, encouraging students to take courses in mathematics, engineering and computer science, greater attention to financial education, aiming at promoting autonomy and entrepreneurship among young people.
- Immigration reform – better adaptation and recognition of skills acquired abroad.
- Increased employment flexibility – reshaping of contracts and legal systems for work and close cooperation of unions and governing bodies of companies for innovation and productivity.
- Investment in industrial excellence – massive diversification of activities.
- Establishment of infrastructure necessary for expression of talent – large scale awareness campaigns and active promotion of promising sectors, such as ITC.