Tourism: 230,000 jobs unfilled by 2030?
This is the projection by the Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council. Between increasing demand for manpower over the next few years and unfavourable demographic factors, the Council calls for preparing for the shortage by incentives.
The third largest creator of jobs in Canada with over 170,000 companies, tourism is expected to have a shortage of manpower next year, as noted in a report from the Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council (CTHRC). The country has already seen this situation in 2007 when 23,700 jobs remained vacant for the year. With a labour demand increasing by 1.6% per year since 2010 and supply changing at the rate of 1.2%, Canadian tourism is again likely to experience shortages. In 2013, it should become equivalent to 3,700 jobs per year. However the CTHRC has pushed its projections further. By 2030, demand for manpower in the tourism sector should increase by 33% and the number of jobs remaining vacant could be around 230,000.
Disparities by province
According to the studies, some provinces have already experienced labour shortages in tourism jobs since 2010, such as Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador and Alberta. These regions had a stronger economic recovery after the recession due to activities based on natural resources and the increase in business travel. In the longer term, other disparities are likely to appear. The report notes that the highest labour shortages will occur in the most populous provinces. By 2030, Ontario could see close to 90,000 vacant tourism jobs. Other major shortages are expected in Quebec, British Columbia and Alberta. But the most acute shortages (in percentage of labour demand) are likely to be felt in the Atlantic Provinces.
Demographic reasons
To explain this phenomenon, the CTHRC puts forward demographic reasons: low birth rate, longer life expectancy, aging of the baby-boomer generation. These are factors that will limit the growth of the active population. Not to mention that the decline in the birth rate will slow the influx of new workers on the labour market, while they represent a significant source of manpower for tourism. On the other hand, the increase in rates of immigration is not likely to be sufficient to fill the coming imbalance.
Incentive measures
To remedy this, the sector will have no other choice than to use incentives to attract and retain workers: salary increases, taking responsibility, training, increased vacation time… Companies should also be more interested in underutilized labour pools (older people, people with disabilities, new immigrants).